The flattening of e-book sales

In a post on the first day of this year, I noted the surprisingly rapid decline in e-book sales growth over the course of 2012. The trend appears to be continuing this year. The Association of American Publishers reports that in the first quarter of 2013, overall e-book sales in the U.S. trade market grew by just 5 percent over where they were in the same period in 2012. The explosive growth of the last few years has basically petered out, according to the AAP numbers*:

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Looking at the major segments of the trade market, e-book sales were up 13.6 percent in the adult segment, down  30.1 percent in the children’s segment, and down 0.6 percent in the religious segment. The children’s segment accounted for a big part of e-book growth last year, thanks in large measure to the Hunger Games franchise, but that boost has proved temporary.

E-books are still taking share from printed books, as overall trade sales declined by 4.7 percent in the quarter, but the anemic growth of the electronic market calls into question the strength of the so-called “digital revolution” in the book business. E-books now represent a bit less than 25 percent of total book sales. That’s an impressive share, but it’s still a long way from dominance. Other big e-book markets also show signs of maturing. A new Nielsen Research report indicates that UK e-book sales actually declined slightly in April from year-earlier levels.

I speculated in my January post about some reasons why e-books may fall short of expectations:

1. We may be discovering that e-books are well suited to some types of books (like genre fiction)  but not well suited to other types (like nonfiction and literary fiction) and are well suited to certain reading situations (plane trips) but less well suited to others (lying on the couch at home). The e-book may turn out to be more a complement to the printed book, as audiobooks have long been, rather than an outright substitute.

2. The early adopters, who tend also to be the enthusiastic adopters, have already made their move to e-books. Further converts will be harder to come by, particularly given the fact that 59 percent of American book readers say they have “no interest” in e-books, according to the Bowker report.

3. The advantages of printed books have been underrated, while the advantages of e-books have been overrated.

4. The early buyers of e-readers quickly filled them with lots of books, most of which have not been read. The motivation to buy more e-books may be dissipating as a result. Novelty fades.

5. The shift from e-readers to tablets is putting a damper on e-book sales. With dedicated readers, pretty much the only thing you can do is buy and read books. With tablets, you have a whole lot of other options. (To put it another way: On an e-reader, the e-reading app is always running. On a tablet, it isn’t.)

6. E-book prices have not fallen the way many expected. There’s not a big price difference between an e-book and a paperback. (It’s possible, suggests one industry analyst, that Amazon is seeing a plateau in e-book sales and so is less motivated to take a loss on them for strategic reasons.)

Those still seem reasonable. Most intriguing, to me, is the possible link between the decline in dedicated e-readers (as multitasking tablets take over) and the softening of e-book sales. Are tablets less conducive to book buying and reading than e-readers were?

UPDATE: A little more confirming data: A recent report on the Canadian market, from BookNet Canada, indicates that the market share of e-books peaked in the first quarter of 2012 at 17.6% and then started falling, dropping to 12.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. BookNet sees evidence that e-books may be “plateauing” at about 15% of the Canadian market: “‘The research suggests that the ebook market in Canada may have reached a plateau,’ says BookNet Canada President and CEO Noah Genner. ‘Early 2013 data backs this up. So far, we’re seeing the same pattern repeating itself.’”

And this from a March 2013 report on the “stalling” of e-books in the UK market: “Yet even as book sales continue to move online, ebooks are making notably slow gains, and likely slowing down the etailing book market overall. Bowker found that ebooks’ share of the UK market reached a high of 13% in July 2012, driven upward by ebook purchases of ‘Fifty Shades of Grey.’ But by November the share had fallen back down to 9%.” (Even without “Fifty Shades,” the current ebook bestseller list in the UK is “filled with erotic fiction,” reports The Guardian.)

UPDATE 2: The original version of this post described the Nielsen data as being worldwide; it actually reflects only the UK market.

*Sources of AAP data in chart: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013. The AAP doesn’t seem to release its sales reports directly to the public, so collecting the data, from secondary sources, is a bit of a trial. In general, good information on book sales is hard to come by.

71 Comments

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71 Responses to The flattening of e-book sales

  1. And–Advertising drives sales. The device wars promoted e-books incidentally. Wars, gone. Promotion, gone. Sales going down to natural levels.

  2. RAD

    I think tablets are less conducive to book buying and reading than e-readers for the following reasons:
    1. e-readers are wonderful to read in natural light, especially outdoors
    2. backlit displays on laptops/desktops/displays are tiring on the eyes for extended reading sessions
    3. tablets are heavier (I can operate my Kobo Mini with one hand)
    4. e-readers don’t have to be charged for days/weeks
    5. Amazon.com is still the place to discover books and evaluate whether you want to purchase the book based on the reviews. Apple fails miserably at discovery, shareable web links, and reviews (I don’t know about the Google Play store)

    I think the core difference between the types of books that work well vs. don’t work well on e-readers comes down to whether the original content is based on reflowable text or not. Fixed layout books, like most text books, do not work well on e-readers. This is a technical problem with the content source that will change with time. The navigation/search usability issues should change over time too.

    I think there is a bit too much emphasis on a single reading experience winning when a multiple device/formats will probably be the norm, even for a single reader. Ideally, every textbook should come with the ability to download the associated e-book (hopefully with reflowable text and e-reader friendly images/charts). Many software oriented books do this now (e.g. Manning Publications).

  3. Josh

    I would say that tablets are less conducive to buying ebooks because, as you suggest in the post, when you’re on your tablet, THERE’S A LOT OF GOOD INTERNET TO DISTRACT YOU. It’s the same problem as when I have to decide between picking up a paperback or clicking through blogs on my MacBook — except that with a tablet, the book can actually become blogs, with just a few touches.

  4. I have read a couple of books on an e-ink reader and found the experience quite enjoyable (for linear reading of pulp fiction anyway). I have attempted to read books on an iPad 3 which I otherwise love, and found the experience intolerable. So I’m inclined to think that the tablet migration definitely had some effect. Once we have fast color displays that are readable in natural light, e-book sales are likely to accelerate again.

  5. kochero

    What about Piracy? Pirated e-books can be found quite easily today.

  6. emeraldcite

    This also just looks at percentage growth rather than market share.

    In reality, things can only continue to grow for so long. For the most part, the explosive growth hit when e-readers and tablets first hit the market. Now that we’re seeing market stabilization around the tablet market, we’re seeing a stabilization of growth.

    The real numbers to watch at this point are market share over the next five years to see where things will really go.

  7. Daniel Vaughan

    In my opinion you should only buy a book once and get all formats for the one price. A printed book should come with the ebook and audio book as a package and they should be as integrated as possible. I always seem to pay for a book on audible and end up buying the paper book to refer to. They should not be separate. A licence to the electronic versions should come free with a paper book.

    When I read a paper book in bed I should be able to use a special bookmark that synchronises the furthest point read with my ebook and audio book version. When I get in my car and listen to the audiobook version it should start from the same place and again sync so when I get out and pick up the ebook it is in the right place too.

    If I notice and interesting passage and book mark it in the audio book to look at in more detail later I should be able to go to my ebook and that passage be marked automatically.

    At the moment I tend to buy audio books and second hand paper backs. Ebooks for my kindle are just not good value.

  8. Daniel Cole

    The fiction/nonfiction split is something I’ve noticed again and again, and now shop mindfully of. I need to flip through and go back often in nonfiction, and e-readers simply aren’t good at that. If I know that a section or passage is in a general area of the book, but am not sure quite where, it’s a pain.

    Pricing is also an issue. If I’m paying the same price as a paperback, then I want the paperback, which I can then lend out if I want.

    I also bought a Kindle Fire this year, and was really disturbed by all the features that were unchangeable. No choosing my own background? Extra fees to avoid built in advertisements? Lots of apps not available? It makes me wary of “owning” too many e-books, whereas I’m quite certain I own my paper and hardbacks.

  9. Talli

    The comments above while intriguing suggest that the users of tablets do not know how to use the e-reader apps provided. The beauty of an ebook is its internal bookmark, the fact that you can highlight passages (and forward them with ease.) You don’t need to flip the pages, you just hit the index and find the chapter you were looking for, and if it was important enough to you, you will have already highlighted the passage you wanted. The additional plus is space. Ebooks don’t collect dust, or have to be packed in boxes when it is time to move. Nor do they disappear when an ereader dies. In time only the very rich will be able to afford libraries because the space simply won’t be there unless we want to gobble up the remaining green spaces that give us clean air. Ebooks are here to stay, no matter what the naysayers say. There’s just too much waste in print format, and we are talking about killing multitudes of trees in order for someone to read a book they decide they don’t want to keep.

  10. “The comments above while intriguing suggest that the users of tablets do not know how to use the e-reader apps provided.”

    None of the previous comments suggest anything like that, and your comment does not address the actual complaints at all. “Killing trees” is a silly red herring. Only a tiny fraction of global lumber production is used for books, the paper can be recycled, and the trees grow back. The last part is especially easy since paper doesn’t need wood of some special age and quality like furniture or structural timber does. You can even make it from other plants!

  11. Amazon stuffed the market with its KDP scheme putting eBook downloads into overdrive. People became satiated with eBooks, most of which were rubbish. Now the e-reading public are a little more discerning, and those who jumped on the free book bandwagon have more than enough books in the e-store.

  12. You guys and gals must all be very young. For me the best thing about reading e-books, whatever the platform, is that I can increase the size of the font. Many paper books are now beyond my reading capacity in poor light. I don’t know what percentage of the population need reading glasses but it must be quite high. I do agree with the comments about reference books – I prefer paper.

  13. Janet McCord

    I absolutely agree with the last reason: price. For myself, if I can get a used paperback from Amazon or even a new one for less I will take that option over downloading it on my Kindle for more money. Most of us have a tight budget for things like this, unfortunately and I can’t afford to participate in publisher’s inflated ebook prices hissy fits. I love my Kindle, I love that I don’t have to pay shipping costs but I can’t justify spending more just for the convenience. I know some publishers have overpriced Kindle offerings–on par with hardback prices–just to discourage ebook sales.

  14. Hi, Nick. As a publisher, I have an intense interest in this topic. My own experience has been that ebook sales growth is flat over the past several quarters, but what really fascinates me is that ebooks were the excuse the brick-and-mortar bookstores latched on to when they fell into decline starting in 2009 or so. Does the flat growth rate in ebooks mean that we’ll see a resurgence in B&M stores? Not necessarily the big-box chains, but maybe the local independent store.

    I think that ebooks made large publishers take a hard look at the traditional book distribution model, and they didn’t like what they saw. We might be at a point in the industry that a new distribution model will emerge, maybe a modified agency style model that removes some of the middlemen and flattens the playing field.

  15. Daniel Cole

    @ Talli

    I think you’re reacting a little too quickly here. A fair comparison between paper and e-books isn’t hostile to e-books, nor did the blog or any of the comments suggest that this is a one or the other situation. I’d agree with the above comment that recognized enlarged font as a very useful feature.

    As to your comment about bookmarks, you assume incorrectly. The fact of the matter is that one doesn’t always know at the time what might be important, relevant or interesting later on, and in such cases bookmarks are useless. I use the highlight/note function on my kindle often (though I find it very poor compared to writing in the margins). But try writing a paper using an e-book as a primary reference and see if you aren’t frustrated trying to hunt down random passages as they become needed. Flipping is simply much easier.

  16. You have an interesting crystal ball and some unique perspectives here but I would hesitate to jump to the conclusions you’ve made. The market may have flattened because the sizzle and pop of the new platform is now not quite as exciting, but as an avid tablet and smart phone user, I have moved exclusively for both my professional and personal reading to electronic titles in whatever format they come. And I am enthusiastic about the ability of the tablets and smart phones to make all reading formats come to life through extensions to online blogs, discussion forums, video, links, etc. What I’d like to see is for publishers to more fully embrace the media and use the possibilities within the platform. That I can annotate and bookmark within my Kindle app is a real snooze–I can do that in print too. But bringing the title to life via links, commentaries, discussions and other interactive bits brings opportunities for ebooks to be all that they can truly be. As a digital immigrant, it’s also my assumption that the digital natives behind us who are only using online textbooks in classrooms and universities will be mortified if told to use a hardback. As my elementary and middle-school aged children shared with me while shopping for “back-to-school” items recently, “I don’t need a backpack, mom. What would I put in there?” Truly, their online textbooks, with embedded video, audio text, interactive glossaries and indices require little more than a log in on a connected device, whether at home, in the classroom or out at the many places with public access in the community. The bigger question is will we even recognize the books of today in the future? Now that’s something for a lively discussion.

  17. One other factor, unmentioned, is that the publishers of ebooks have yet to engage in libraries in how to best deliver content in a way which makes economic sense for libraries and their patrons. While there are a couple of products out there for libraries, the cost is turning out to be extremely high on a per-book basis, so libraries have little incentive to develop ebooks as a content delivery mechanism for their patrons.

    It is as if publishers were charging $40 for a paperback to a library, because they are afraid so many people will use that book that the publisher will lose sales.

    Libraries are the places many people learn lifelong reading habits. To ignore those readers leaves ebook publishers with a self-inflicted disability.

  18. Chris Schanck

    To me, the 2 biggest reasons are:

    1) Price. I routinely see prices of new paperbacks lower than the Kindle prices. This infuriates me, as I know the opportunity cost to sell another copy of the book digitally is near-zero. And once bought, I can’t loan it, can’t resell it, can’t give it away. I always, always, always buy a used paperback copy in these cases.

    2) In the Apple ecosystem, it is so much harder to go from reading a book in the Kindle app to buying a book. On my kindle, in the Cloud Reader, or on my Android phone, moving from buying to reading is trivial. Frictionless. On my wife’s iPad, it’s an enormous pain to shop for Kindle titles. There are millions upon millions of iPad users who never get beyond Apple’s store because of it. I constantly run into people who think they have to buy the books from their computer, in order to read them in the Kindle app on their iPad.

  19. I think you may be onto something with the question of the ascendancy of tablets. I know when I had a Nook Simple, since I was limited to reading in B&W, and there were no machine distractions, I read voraciously. Fiction, of course, although I did adapt pdfs of owner’s manuals to my reader. Eventually, I was attracted to the color reader so that I could also subscribe to magazines. Now, I read both, including periodicals, however, with eBook prices almost as high as paper, I hesitate more than I used to when buying new eBooks. It’s also true that National Geographic can never look as good on my reader’s color screen as on my LCD HD Monitor. Neither can the NY Times. So, despite having originally purchased the reader for a NY Times eSubscription, I don’t read it there as much as I used to. My color reader also plays games, gets weather, etc., so I am more distracted when reading on it than I used to be on the simpler device. I think it is all just a settling out of a quickly cresting wave. We’ll all have to wait and see a while longer to see if the sea is going to rise or fall.

  20. Dave

    I think the stats shown here are likely to be a little misleading. First of all, the AAP only represents the big publishers, so it seems likely that these numbers don’t include the quickly-growing numbers of self-published and independent ebooks that are being sold these days. The ebook best-seller lists every week include plenty of self-published work.

    Second, as emeraldcite says, market share growth is more telling than year-over-year percentage growth since a 1% increase in market share when you have a 1% share is 100% growth, but if you have a 25% share, that represents 4% growth.

  21. Nick

    Dave, The AAP collects sales data from some 1,200 of its members, so I think the figures do a pretty good job of representing the broad publishing business rather than just “the big publishers.” And the fact that the Nielsen numbers are in line with the AAP figures lends them further credibility. You’re right, though, that the data aren’t comprehensive and certainly don’t cover all self-published books, sales of which have grown in recent years. (Hard numbers for self-published books are impossible to come by, thanks mainly to Amazon’s reluctance to release detailed sales data.) What the AAP numbers do provide is the clearest available picture of trends in book publishing, with apples-to-apples comparisons year after year. Market share gains by e-books, by the way, have also slowed considerably, along with the steep drop in sales growth. Nick

  22. JW

    I would add a #7 to the list, Nick, and it’s one hinted at by Carolyn above:

    7. The format causes us to sacrifice the convenience and weightiness of physical books, while giving us little in return. The design of eBook reader apps has been stuck in “Minimum Viable Product” mode for years, justified by the stratospheric rise in digital book sales. This has led to some confusion: the mass adoption of digital books does not imply that the reader software was well-designed to begin with.

    In this case I am speaking largely to the tablet-based reader software, namely Kindle and iBooks.

    Is it really conceivable that digital reader apps today meet the potential for good interactive design? I don’t mean inline, flashy multimedia as Apple has pursued in iBooks; no amount of killer whale footage makes a drab textbook palatable. If anything, it just gives schoolkids an avenue for “amusing themselves to death.”

    But eBooks can be much smarter in subtler and more useful ways for readers. Technical books can have interactive code samples. DFW’s Infinite Jest can have a dictionary of its own terminology. The vocabulary and notes one picks up from reading can be much better organized. And yes, sometimes flashy interactivity is nice, when it’s thoughtfully designed, but as “liner notes” for the book, rather than a change to the internal format. And what about the potential for interactive book clubs with peer-to-peer connectivity? Nothing overboard or excessively “social,” just software designed for readers by readers, who tend to treat the activity as either private or close-knit.

    The Minimum Viable Product mentality extends from the software up to the business model. Regarding #4, for virtually the first time ever publishers can have real information on the ‘stickiness’ of their content, but they seem to do nothing about it. The software “knows” that you bought a book and let it collect virtual dust for six months. Why not suggest a trade for a more exciting title and keep people in the digital reading loop? Or, God forbid, a refund or credit for something you obviously hate (it’s easy to know — you read two chapters and put it down forever). Why does my eBook software never ask me if I hate a book? Or if I even have time or inclination to finish it?

  23. Steve

    I think it’s silly to ignore the suppressive effect of DRM and format wars. When people discover that they have to think about what file format the book is being sold in to discover whether it can be read on the device they own, it slows down sales.

    A little over half the ebook titles my library offers for lending are not compatible with the reader I own. Some of the titles I can check out can’t be read on the readers that the library will let patrons check out. Lots of people held off on videotape until the VHS vs. Betamax wars ended. Before that, standardization on flat, round vinyl in three sizes helped the recorded music industry take off after years of wars between physically incompatible formats. Until all ebooks are sold in a format readable on any device and every device sold can read ebooks from any bookseller, a lot of users will hold off.

  24. There is an overwhelming amount of good content on the Internet in all forms – blogs, email news, videos. Nobody is manufacturing more time to go with e-readers so the time gets divided ever more and more. Meanwhile, my stacks of unread real books grows. I haven’t finished one in I don’t know how long. But I read more and more every day it seems. Some would argue the quality of read, but it is also true that more and more books are more and more filler to make a book.

  25. Most sales figures I have seen completely leave out book sales figures for book apps – the type of interactive books produced using the Adobe DPS and published by nontraditional publishers. These eBooks show that non-fiction works very well, indeed, in the eBook format as they contain information that can not be included in a print book.

    But the digital bookstores are a mess and are doing sales no favors at all. Apple promotes just a few titles, for instance, so sales are depressed and those with experience argue that book apps do better there than eBooks in the iBookstore.

    Books are undergoing the same sales arc that magazines saw. The initial excitement of an electronic version of a product fades pretty fast when it is discovered that the publisher put very little effort into the digital edition and all the reader gets is the equivalent of a PDF.

  26. Roger Garza

    Looking at the wrong math here. Rate of growth was down, absolutely. However, there was a -4.7% change in all book sales from Q1 2012 to Q1 2013. The fact that ebooks still grew by 5% means they completely outpaced every other set of book sales. Like, ridiculously.

    Q1 2012 ebook sales made up 24.3% of total sales. Q1 2013 ebook sales made up 26.8% of total sales. That’s roughly a 10% jump in share of total sales.

    Further, adult fiction/nonfiction ebooks are now the greatest share of sales, even outpacing paperback. That, in and of itself should be a story.

    This whole thing seems like poor reporting to me.

  27. Joe Jejune

    There might be a direct correlation between the fatigue of being on so many different phones, tablets and computers that reading an eBook is just a step too far.

    Might have been nice and purposeful for some, but the more people are put in front of an electronic display, the more they probably need to escape it.

    I work as a programmer. Honestly feel like it is easier to read a paperback than an eBook after a day of sitting in front of a screen. Paper is my escape from digital content.

  28. Michele

    “We may be discovering that e-books are well suited to some types of books (like genre fiction) but not well suited to other types (like nonfiction and literary fiction)”

    This is an interesting suggestion, but what is inherent in genre fiction that makes it more suited to e-book format? Likewise, what is it about nonfiction that makes it less suited to e-book format?

    One issue might be that nonfiction often needs indexes, and there’s a shortage of useful indexes in e-books. When a publisher converts a legacy book to e-format, they sometimes leave out the index entirely (on the mistaken theory that the search functionality will serve just as well), or include it but without any edits or live linking, so that it retains page numbers from the print version which are (generally) useless in an e-book format.

    There is a new standard coming out for EPUB indexes (see here and here) which might help address this, but publishers of course would need to adopt it and reading systems exploit it for it to be useful.

  29. Judy Moss

    My home (every room) is filled with books. Many I have read and choose to keep in both hard cover and soft. I purchased a Kindle years ago and found it uncomfortable to read. BUT my husband nearly had a heart attach when traveling and my suitcase was over-weight because of the books I had taken to read aboard ship. I bought a Kindle Paperwhite and JUST LOVE IT. I read it when I travel, but still buy hard copies of books I want to save on the shelf once I have read them. I have over 100 books in print here at home which I read when here. So…I think a reader like myself will enjoy both. I do find that Kindle books are more expensive than I would like…especially for something you can’t display on a shelf after reading.

  30. Susan Hirtz

    I agree that the online bookstores are a mess; the libraries are too. Also, many of the titles I need for my research are not available as e-books. My purpose in buying an e-reader was the highlight and noting function. Now I have a mess of notes from bound books and electronic notes to combine. This debate is really about the transition from paper to electronic media. Can we please get on with it? This is all taking too long when driven by financial gain (or no gain). We have to do it. We have completely outgrown our capacity to store, access and use paper assets.

  31. Okay, this has me puzzled: How can an e-reader or tablet be “less suitable” for certain types of books? It’s a device that shows words on a screen. Are the words in literary fiction rendered in a hard-to-read font? How are the words on the screen in a nonfiction book somehow less suitable than the words on the screen in a science fiction, horror, or romance novel?

    Makes absolutely no sense.

    Ditto the comment about e-readers and tablets being less suitable for the couch. Sure, I wouldn’t take my iPad into the bathtub, and it’s a little hard to read in the bright sun at the beach, but on the couch? That’s where I read all the time. On my iPad. And in bed, too.

    I love reading, and I love paper books. But I now buy about 90% of new books on my iPad. Like many avid readers, I have shelves sagging with all the books I’ve collected over my lifetime. And boxes of them in storage. There are occasional books I’ll want as keepers—shelf-worthy novels, cookbooks, art books, and reference works. But a novel I’ll likely read only once? Why should I acquire another physical object when the experience of reading it is no different as an ebook?

    The ebook sales numbers may have flattened, but I’ll be very surprised if they don’t continue to grow. Most everyone I know who has read a few ebooks has continued to buy more of them. The convenience, portability, and lower cost will continue to win people over.

    Full disclosure: My first novel has just been released as ebook only by Random House. And I’m thrilled. A story is a story, no matter what the medium of its transmission, and I’m happy my novel is finding an audience. And it is priced at $2.99, which seems to be the sweet spot. So publishers are finally realizing people don’t want to pay $9.99 anymore—nor should they.

  32. Stephen Boulet

    E-book prices are just too high. I feel like the publishers are taking an unfair profit margin on them.

    I love my kindle, but if I see a used copy of the book I want to buy for a quarter of the price of an e-book and the e-book at 90% of the price of a paper version, the used book is going to win out.

  33. Steve

    I agree that ebook prices are too high. This is not because publishers or authors somehow deserve less or because a marginal copy is cheaper to produce. It’s specifically because those who have set up the rules for ebooks have created contracts that exclude them from the first sale doctrine–and because a copy is no different from an original. One of the things we calculate in our heads when buying something is the potential resale value for this kind of item. We may not know how much this particular one will be worth in the future, but we can guesstimate how much an aggregate collection of them might be worth at some future time (just ask comic book collectors). We have an idea how much a box of romances might get at a yard sale, and that residual value goes into whether we are willing to make the initial purchase and at what amount. Ebooks reduce that residual value to zero.

  34. Lin

    Has anyone else noticed how poorly edited many ebooks seem to be compared to their print counterparts? Loads of errors. Even though I enjoy my Nook tablet for reading and other apps, this is the reason I’m not buying as many ebooks as I used to…

  35. Stephen and Steve, as I noted in my previous comment, publishers are getting savvy to reader dissatisfaction with pricing. My novel (digital only) is sold by my publisher for $2.99, and my belief is that most ebooks will eventually sell from $2.99-$5.99. That seems reasonable for many readers. And lower prices can benefit authors like myself, too—it’s much easier to take a chance on a new book or an unknown author if it costs less than a fancy coffee.

    Lin, I used to see a lot more typos than I do now. It’s still a problem, but it’s becoming less of one.

  36. Steve Jones

    Rogeer Garza said “Q1 2012 ebook sales made up 24.3% of total sales. Q1 2013 ebook sales made up 26.8% of total sales. That’s roughly a 10% jump in share of total sales.”

    LOL.
    Let me see…
    26.8% – 24.3% = 2.5%. OF TOTAL SALES.

    Only somebody wgo was reaching, and trying to mislead, would do 2.5% DIVIDED by 24.3% and use that figure to represent the “jump in share of total sales”…

  37. It was the killing of the Kindle Touch in September 2012, but more the introduction of the Kindle Fire tablet in September 2011 that killed ebook sales.

    The Kindle Fire is horrible to read with, does not support Text To Speech nearly as well as the Kindle Touch, and it’s battery lasts mere hours, where the Touch’s lasts for weeks, even a month, without a charge with heavy usage (i read on mine 2-3 hours every day).

    The new Paperwhite (paperweight) has a horrible contrast from dark black borders to bright white background for the text, esp. in the dark. It has no Text To Speech (cuts into Amazon’s Audible sales), no MP3 player, and the battery doesn’t last as long as the Touch, either.

    That, and that eBooks cannot be lent to others more than once, legally and easily, nor can they ever be resold, and they can be yanked off your Kindle devices whenever by Amazon (research “kindle 1984″). And they cost as much if not more than hardbacks?

    You’ve got to be kidding me!

    AAPL and AMZN killed the ebook market that Amazon had spent 8 years previously building. It’s sad, really.

  38. @Steve Jones, wow! You **really** fail at the maths [sic] huh? :O

    Let me spell it out for you: 26.8 – 24.3 = 2.5 / 24.3 = +10.3% YoY.

    You failed. Hard.

    “Rogeer Garza said “Q1 2012 ebook sales made up 24.3% of total sales. Q1 2013 ebook sales made up 26.8% of total sales. That’s roughly a 10% jump in share of total sales.”

    LOL.
    Let me see…
    26.8% – 24.3% = 2.5%. OF TOTAL SALES”

  39. TheTopdog

    One of the biggest problems is that the traditional publishers seem to be going out of their way to sabotage eBooks of their own titles. Keeping the prices so artificially high that not many purchase the eBook. If I can buy the print book for $11.99 and they are charging $10.46 for the eBook, there is no incentive. They did not have to print nor ship the eBook yet they are trying to get close to print prices. $4.99 or less is a better price point and they would see sales skyrocket.

  40. Often, when pages are re-sized, the placement of how the text appears on the page will change. This is fine for most prose, but is a horrible thing for poetry (in which the text placement, line breaks, and stanza breaks are as important as the words being used).

  41. *Disclaimer: I’m an author.*

    I think, in thinking about the pricing of ebooks, people forget about all the people involved. Yes, you don’t have to pay the printer for an ebook, but you still have to pay the formatter, Amazon et al, takes their cut, then there’s the overhead of web sites, tech people for computer end of things, the accounting who now has to look over Amazon et al and make sure there’s nothing squirrelly in the reports, on top of the physical book reports. It’s TWICE as much work. The only savings is materials, but I think tech people, if they’re paid worth their salt, cost a lot of money. My webhosting, without tech help, is like 100/year, I think. (I need the tech help, so it’s more…even with a good deal.) And the big name publishing houses do not get their stuff on a “free” web domain place. They have to pay for the secure software if they want to offer sales, pay whomever their percentage (paypal, credit card companies, etc), someone to run the blog and site, and the list goes on.
    Most people do not understand how many people’s hands are in the pie. If the book costs 10.00, the MINIMUM Amazon takes, is 3.00. That’s if you pay an upfront fee (which I’m assuming it’s worth it to the big guns). That’s bare minimum. You still have editors, artists, line item editors, proofreaders, and accountants, and formatters to pay. How many books do you think someone has to sell to recoup their losses? Yes, some places are charging less, and putting things on sale, and that’s great. Seriously. My best selling book, is 1.49-1.99 depending on where you find it. (It’s a shorty!) But I still think, charging a price based on length is the best option. And it leaves wiggle room for sales. I still think anything over 10 is a bit much for fiction after taking all that into account. I back that up by not buying over that amount. And something needs to be done about Amazon’s capability of taking our books away (why I don’t buy more) and the pirates. Yes, the pirates. GRRRRR.

  42. Steve

    Leona: Piracy is really not a significant issue. Really. The reason Tor and O’Reilly stopped using DRM for their books a couple of years ago is that they discovered that with rare exceptions people want to pay for the books they want to own; and they don’t want to pay for (and don’t keep) the books that they want to look up one bit of information in or want to peruse before they make the buy decision (which for a physical book they would do in a bookstore or a library).

    And I’ve always objected to “piracy” as the metaphor for illicit downloading. However harmful you may think it is to markets, creators, publishers, the fact is that no downloaders have invaded the offices of publishers and slaughtered them, no authors or musicians have been hung from yardarms or forced to walk a plank, and until that start to happen on a regular basis, until digital pirates are literally starting to kill publishers and artists in order to get their booty, calling it piracy is a an exaggeration of Godwin’s law proportions.

  43. Michele

    calling it piracy is a an exaggeration of Godwin’s law proportions.

    Given that they’re out there sailing the cyberseas stealing other people’s stuff, I think piracy is actually a pretty good term :)

    But I don’t think the semantics of what it’s called are nearly as important as whether it has an actual negative impact. One study, based on tracking illegal downloads of 913 different books for a 90 day period, estimated that digital piracy cost publishers $3 billin a year. That’s pretty substantial.

  44. Steve

    But as The Guardian pointed out a couple of days later. “The source of the statistics was a company named Attributor, who provide online piracy protection for the publishing industry. Like a plumber tutting over the state of your pipes, they have a vested interest in finding problems.” Figures arrived at by attaching the regular retail price to every illicit download are absurd. Lost sales are people who would have paid money for your book if they hadn’t gotten it free, which doesn’t include, for example, the people who downloaded to see if they liked it, read three pages, and then threw away the file. Or the people who download it only because it is free (they are the ones who will pick up the discarded newspaper on the train in to work so they don’t have to buy one). Or the people who download it illicitly because it’s not available for legal sale (I’ve been tempted to find a way around international restrictions for one ebook: I own three copies from different editions of the book in paper and ink format, an ebook edition is available in England but not in the US; were I to get a British copy, I would buy an American ebook edition should one ever come out, so on what planet could my downloading the British edition, were I to accomplish it, be considered a lost sale of this title?

    Just a few months ago, David Pogue looked at the results of Tor’s first year results after removing DRM from all their titles: “We’ve seen no discernible increase in piracy on any of our titles.”

    I have no doubt some sales are lost–people used to sometimes take two newspapers from newspaper boxes, so no doubt a few people illicitly download it for free who otherwise might have paid if it were less convenient to steal it–but the early results from Tor and O’Reilly after removing DRM suggest that it’s not very many.

  45. Marc

    Any idea how all-you-can-read subscription services are impacting those numbers?
    They use different approaches for marking a book as “sold”.

    While those services are still new they could be quite disruptive.

    Any thoughts are welcome :-)

  46. Michele

    I have no doubt some sales are lost–people used to sometimes take two newspapers from newspaper boxes, so no doubt a few people illicitly download it for free who otherwise might have paid if it were less convenient to steal it–but the early results from Tor and O’Reilly after removing DRM suggest that it’s not very many.

    Well, either that or DRM wasn’t doing any good in the first place ;)

  47. Lisa K

    Couple of thoughts:

    1. Kindle Paperwhite is great for traveling. I bought one this year, and spent several months traveling in Europe & Asia, as well as U.S. I read literary fiction, genre fiction, and trade nonfiction on it.

    2. That said, for serious study paper books still can’t be beat. It is much faster to make notes and bookmark– and then access those notes–on paper.

    3. Indexes. In addition to being a traditionally published author, I am an indexer. The problem of translating a detailed index from a paper book with set page layout to an ebook is easy to underestimate. In a good index of a serious nonfiction book, the number of “locators” (page numbers referenced) in an index can be huge. It takes me twice the time to mark up a manuscript with locators as it does to prepare a standard index. To add even more HTML code as called for in http://www.idpf.org/epub/idx/ referenced above, would involve even more work, either from an indexer or a coder. Time is money, as they say, and I don’t see publishers wanting to spend more money (usually taken from author royalties) on indexes in any but the best-selling titles.

    A way around this problem is to keep the original page numbers to run at the side of an ebook, and index to those original page numbers. In fact, use of fixed page numbers running alongside reflowable text would make it easier for use of ebooks in educational settings and also for citations in academic papers.

  48. Some Guy

    These numbers are interesting, but another thing to consider is trade paperbacks are making the jump above the $20 price point. For every 5% book prices rise, I think there’s a corresponding 5% drop in sales, because prices are getting way out of line right now. Trade paperback books need to drop back to the $12-15 impulse buy price point. Trade paperback books jumped up to the $16-18 range, and now the $20-22 range, and sales are falling. Then there’s the George Washington biography that was an eye-popping $40 as a hardback, which is now piled up high on the close-out table for $8. Publishers have got to find some way to keep prices down, or they’re going to price themselves out of their audience’s reach.

  49. Mark

    No mention of what happened with non-e-book sales? Maybe all books sales went down? Although, per the article, there is certainly something to be said for the Android tablet market (which a lot of e-readers have migrated towards): users seem more interested in playing Angry Birds than reading a book sometimes.

  50. Piracy costs a lot, even if it isn’t the amount Attributor suggested. I know a lot of people won’t buy it, and their reasoning is why should I? books should be free. Information should be free. Yet, those same people would be extremely offended if I walked into their house and took their food. Or, to better the analogy, if someone else walked in their house, took all their food, and gave it to me. Food should be free. A basic human right. I shouldn’t have to pay the farmer, or the person who already worked hard to get it where it is. I deserve that food for free.

    That’s a load of nonsense. As I’ve said to my friends, publishers and authors are constantly doing contests, giving away their books, or putting them on sale. If, you honestly can’t afford books, then use your time to join these contests and watch your favorite author’s pages for freebies. There are reviewers who post freebies and cheap books all the time. There is no excuse.

    And while you went to the dramatic, “They’re not killing anyone.” How do you know? Many authors have to make their living from writing because health makes it impossible, or unfeasible to work outside the home. Many authors are having to choose between meds, food, power, and housing. Not having their meds, and improper food will take time off your life. So, let’s say 1000 books are pirated from an author (100 copies of ten books) The author would have made 1 dollar each off those books. (After Amazon’s take, it’s not much more than that, and I like easy numbers.) That’s 1000k dollars that would have meant the author could have easily bought their three month’s supply of meds. Even if only half of those books were actually bought because half those people won’t pay for them if they can’t steal them, that’s still a huge amount for an author who is struggling. Most of us are not changing tax brackets from our earnings.

    Before you go saying that’s not true, you should know something. I am one such author. I have life threatening illnesses. My body reacts badly, as in throat closes, burning, and asthma attacks, to bleach, aeresols, and ragweeds. What does this mean? That it’s nearly impossible to work anywhere. Inside jobs are out, medical jobs are out (I used to be an EMT), and outdoor warehouse jobs are out (I live in a farming community.) So I’m left with jobs from home, painting and writing.

    I literally have had to make the choices above on a continuous bases. I’m starting to make a little more, so it’s usually just my meds, or the power, that has to wait. I say “just” because there have been times when my family could only pay for housing. Or food. And nothing else. We work hard, we try hard (I’ve worked in the fields and the warehouses.), but stuff happens.

    This isn’t a “Oh poor me post.” cuz believe me, I could actually pour it on. This is a reality check for those people who say stealing books doesn’t hurt anybody.

    The pirates are making money off of other people’s hard work, through advertising and “dues” and donate buttons. So, they steal other people’s things and make money off it. Hmmm…but they aren’t hurting any one, so they should be left alone and keep on stealing.

    Maybe that’s why we have a generation of kids who’d prefer to play games, than read. Intelligence and hard work isn’t important. They can just steal it if they want to. After all, it’s not hurting anyone.