A few days ago, the Financial Times did a long interview with eBay’s Meg Whitman. At one point, she was asked to respond to the skepticism regarding eBay’s ability to “monetize” Skype, the internet phone service it acquired last year. She answered:
Well I certainly hope we’re gonna be able to monetize it! … If you have the largest ecosystem, then you will be the one who will actually figure out the long-term monetization model. And I think telephony will be a part of that. Skype and voicemail in what we do today, but also ecommerce applications, content applications; we will figure out how to monetize the largest user base on the Net. And we already have some ideas; there’s already a number of trials in place. And the good news is we have a stream of revenues called telephony revenues that enable us to continue to grow quite fast while we’re testing and trying to figure out the new monetization models …
And so, that’s why we were so excited when we saw Skype because I said, you know what, there’s something here that will unlock the Skype business, and will enable each business to grow on its own. So, people will understand as we deliver the results, and you know, I have great confidence that this was a smart thing to do … Because in the end, the monetization, I think, is going to be around ecommerce, not telephony. And guess who has the biggest ecommerce franchise in the world, that can accelerate the growth of Skype? So, we’ll see.
“We’ll figure it out.” “There’s something here.” “We already have some ideas.” “We’ll see.” I wonder how many other multibillion-dollar acquisitions have taken place before the acquiring company had “figured out” how to actually make money from the deal. I know there’ve been plenty where the acquirer’s money-making strategy turned out to be pure fantasy, but how many have there been where there wasn’t any strategy, where the justification boiled down to “don’t worry, we’ll figure it out later.”
You can build a religion on faith, but building a company on it seems pretty dicey. At least eBay makes a lot of money in its core business. It can afford to have patience and do “a number of trials” and hope for the best. And it can afford to make mistakes, even if they end up costing a billion or two. If Skype falls short of earning back its price, it’s not the end of the world.
You have to wonder, though, about other companies that are making it up as they go along. I think most Web 2.0 businesses fall into that category, but my favorite at the moment is YouTube. Even in these days of cheap storage and bandwidth, YouTube is burning through a ton of money to store and stream its mountain of bit-heavy, user-generated videos like the future Oscar contender Ass Hand. Fearing lawsuits or PR disasters related to the corruption of youth, it’s now also going to have to put in place costly screening procedures – having people review uploaded pictures and videos is reportedly the latest chore that companies are outsourcing to the Third World. If the big costs weren’t bad enough, there are competitors sprouting up all over the place, including heavyweights like Google with cash flow out the wazoo.
YouTube’s only hope, so far as I can see, is for an eBay-like company to come along and buy it in the hope it will eventually be able to “figure out” how to make money off all the traffic. It’s the greater fool theory of monetization.