A couple of Wharton professors recently released a study of the distribution of demand for movie rentals at Netflix, based on the data the company released for the Netflix prize. The authors say the data contradict Chris Anderson’s long tail theory; Anderson says the data back up his theory; and Tom Slee says the data do neither.
I wonder, though, whether the Netflix data aren’t hopelessly skewed, at least when it comes to getting a sense of the relative demand for hits as opposed to less popular or niche titles. I’ve subscribed to Netflix for a long time, and what I’ve noticed is that the company has deliberately geared its search, filtering, and recommendation tools to lead customers away from newly released hits. There was a time, I’m pretty sure, when you could find a simple list of the week’s top new releases on the Netflix site. You can’t do that anymore. There is a New Releases tab on the Browse menu, but it brings you to an odd assortment of films that don’t bear much resemblance to the releases that are actually most in demand at the moment.
Here, for instance, is the first set of five movies that Netflix currently presents under the banner “Popular New Releases” (along with the actual DVD release date):
Obsessed (August 4)
The Soloist (August 4)
Confessions of a Shopaholic (June 23)
Revolutionary Road (June 2)
Seven Pounds (March 31)
Here, by contrast, is IMDB’s current list of the five most-rented DVDs in the country:
State of Play
Crank: High Voltage
Next Day Air
No overlap at all. You have to go down to #16 on the IMDB list before you find the first movie that’s on the Netflix list (Obsessed). In fact, you can scroll through Netflix’s “Popular New Releases” list all day long, and you will never come upon X-Men Wolverine or State of Play. And if you add the original X-Men movie to your queue, X-Men Wolverine will be conspicuously absent from the set of 10 movies that Netflix will immediately recommend as being “Most Like X-Men.”
By fussing around a bit, I was able to coax Netflix into giving me a list of “Movies Released in the Last Week.” Here are the first five I was shown:
Road to Victory
The Anna Nicole Smith Story
And here are the next five I was shown:
Mr. Tickle: Tickle Time Around Town
Barney: Fun on Wheels
Scooby-Doo! The Mystery Begins
Mandie and the Secret Tunnel
Notable by their absence are the three most popular movies released on DVD this week: Observe and Report, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, and Battle for Terra.
Now, to be fair, all the really popular DVDs can be found on the Netflix site, if, for example, you search by their name. But if you add any of them to your queue, you’ll be told that you’ll have either a short or a long wait until they ship. In the meantime, you’ll receive less popular titles from your queue. (You’ll be relieved to know, though, that the Mr. Tickle DVD is available immediately.)
By manipulating the movies it suggests, and by restricting the number of copies of new and popular movies it offers, Netflix shifts demand away from current hits and down the long tail. The reason, I think, is pretty obvious: the latest hits are the most expensive for Netflix to procure.* By manipulating demand, it makes more money (a venerable marketing strategy that’s given a new twist on the web). But it also spreads demand across its inventory in an artificial way that obscures its customers’ actual preferences.
In his Long Tail book, Chris Anderson talks about how the searching and filtering tools on the Net expose niche products that used to be difficult to find. That’s true. What I don’t recall him mentioning is that companies can use their search and filtering tools, as well as their inventories, to manipulate demand, deliberately leading customers, as in Netflix’s case, away from the hits and toward Mr. Tickle and The Anna Nicole Smith Story.** Sometimes we travel down the long tail under our own power. Sometimes we’re pushed.
*UPDATE: As noted in the comments, another and probably larger reason why Netflix tries to hide a popular new release is that it would have to buy a ton of copies of the DVD to fulfill the natural demand for the film, and after a few weeks, when the initial demand subsides, most of those copies would sit idly in its warehouses. By suppressing demand it avoids that expensive inventory overhang.
**UPDATE: My memory is flawed. As noted in the comments, Anderson does apparently mention demand-manipulation in the book.