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Party like it's 1999
April 25, 2006
We live in interesting times, economywise. If you're focused on the so-called "Web 2.0 bubble," you're looking through the wrong end of the telescope. The price of money is going up. The prices of oil and other commodities are going through the roof. The real estate bubble is still happily inflated. Stock markets around the world are shooting up, wildly so in developing countries. America's debt-ridden economy is floating buoyantly on other people's cash, particularly the scratch donated by our friends in OPEC and China, even as the value of the dollar falls. Consumer confidence just hit a four-year high.
Either the globalization of the economy has overthrown all the old verities, and replaced them with new verities we have yet to figure out, or else we're living on borrowed time (and money). Which is it? I don't know, but it seems wonderfully appropriate that the background noise on the soundtrack right now should consist of the voices of Andrew Fastow, Jeffrey Skilling and Ken Lay.
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Comments
Maybe, its 99 again!
Posted by: web20guy ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.roughtype.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at April 25, 2006 08:27 PM
I've personally noticed since 2002 prices sky-rocketing. What with the housing bubble, and people with little to no earning capability purchasing homes for 3-500k (i'm in honolulu, hawaii).
I'm just wondering what the outcome of these signs will be. Major inflation? Lots of foreclosures, companies failing, people defaulting on loans, the dollar being worth less and less every day?
:(
Posted by: eric n. at April 25, 2006 09:48 PM
The It impact has been positive for a change. Joe Kraus says from idea to launch cost him $ 3 m at Excite, and only $ 100K on his new venture Jotspot. Wow, even if the ratio was 3 to 1 rather than 30 to 1, it would be impressive. Broadband, servers, voice, global labor are down impressively over last few years. If CIOs are successful in beating down some of the bigger software and outsourcing vendors, the savings will continue. That is showing up in process efficiency...too offseting at least partially oil, interest rate, Sarbanes impact...
Posted by: vinnie mirchandani at April 25, 2006 10:29 PM
Your post mentioned at least two types of bubbles. Call me a pessimist, but I don't see how this can be great in anything but the short-term.
The party may be nice, but the hangover sucks.
Michael Krigsman
http://projectfailures.com
Posted by: mkrigsman at April 26, 2006 12:20 AM
I do hope that title line "Party like it's 1999" does come from the Prince record ;-)
Posted by: Alex Osterwalder at April 26, 2006 03:42 AM
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